A new study reports that the Milky Way has millions of potentially habitable planets, around four of which harbor evil alien civilizations that would invade Earth if they could. The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, raises an intriguing question – what are the odds that humans will one day come into contact with a hostile alien civilization capable of invading our planet? Alberto Caballero, study author and a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain, began looking at human history before gazing at the stars to find the answer.
Therefore, Caballero first began counting the number of countries that invaded other countries from 1915 to 2022. During that time, he discovered that 51 of the 195 countries in the world had carried out some kind of invasion. He then calculated each country’s chance of launching an invasion based on its share of global military spending.
Caballero added the individual probability of each country to instigating an invasion by the total number of nations on Earth, and arrived at the current human possibility of an extraterrestrial civilization invasion.
The study was published in arXiv Prepress database.
Caballero noted that the paper sought to provide an assessment of the spread of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations “by extrapolating the probability that we, as human civilization, would attack or conquer an extrasolar planet.”
The current probability of humans conquering another inhabited planet, according to this estimate, is 0.028%. However, this possibility applies to the current stage of human civilization, according to Caballero, because humans are not yet capable of interstellar travel.
Using the Kardashev Scale — a measure that ranks how a developed society depends on its energy expenditure — he predicted that interplanetary travel would not be achievable for another 259 years if current rates of technological improvement remained the same.
If the frequency of human invasions continues to decline at the same rate as it has over the past 50 years—at an average of minus 1.15 percent per year—the human race will have a 0.0014 percent chance of conquering another planet when it becomes an interstellar civilization 259 years from now.
Caballero based his final number on a research paper published in the journal in 2012 SETI MathThe researchers predicted that up to 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically coexist with humans in the universe.
The researcher came to the conclusion that only 0.22 of the interstellar civilizations would be hostile to humans if they came into contact with them. When civilizations that were not yet able to travel between planets, such as modern humans, are included, the number of bad neighbors rises to 4.42.
There doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about about 4.42 hostile space forces. Caballero said that humanity’s chances of coming into contact with one of these hostile civilizations – and subsequently overrunning – are highly unlikely.